5 Counts of Statistical Ignorance
Okay, I want to make some comments about the 5 count. The following comments relate to RANDOM ROLLERS ONLY except where noted.
1) First, as to Dr. Catlin's "proof" study on random rollers.
Dr. Catlin's computer sim produced these figures:
Bet-All Player total wager was $6,252,014,616 Bet-All Player lost $94,702,858
The 5-Counter’s total wager was $2,692,893,204 The 5-Counter lost $40,792,688
If you do the math on the above results from the sim, you will find that the TOTAL AMOUNT OF MONEY LOST as a percentage of the wager is exactly the same for the 5 count as it is for the bet all.
Percentage of money lost for BET ALL: 1.5147574633% Percentage of money lost for 5 count: 1.5148275446%
(in fact his sim shows the 5 count lost 0.000000700813% more!!)
The percentage figures should look familiar - they reflect the house advantage for the 6 and 8 place bets, which is what Dr. Catlin used in his sim.
2) Yes the 5 count lowers your exposure - but only because it lowers your total wager over time. You would get the same result by lowering your wager by a factor of 2.32 Or by wagering on every 2.32 throws.
The END result over time is the same when we are talking about RANDOM ROLLERS.
3) This is not to say that the 5 count is not a valid method for qualifying CONTROLLED SHOOTERS. And let's discuss this now.
If someone grabs the dice, shakes them in their hand, and chucks them at the end of the table, I think we can all agree they are pure RANDOM ROLLERS.
We should all be able to easily tell a CONTROLLED SHOOTER from a RANDOM ROLLER by making a qualitative judgment on their set and throw.
This does not mean "choose only those with a 3 finger grip" necessarily - as I understand it, the Arm used a "fist" grip - but I also understand that her throw was clearly controlled.
I think we all can make the value choice on a shooter's throw at this point. Watch the set, grip, toss, and result while doing a 5 count on them. The controlled shooters (few and far between) should be clear.
4) As such, and based on the math, I see no reason to use 5 count for those that are clearly random rollers. If you wager on random rollers, you are no longer advantage playing - you are gambling.
Personally, I HATE gambling. I like winning, and you can only win over time playing advantage. Comps will never make up for gambling losses over time. Comps are based on the house advantage, and over time the house wins in pure random play. Saving $200 on a room in meaningless if it cost you $1000 to get the comp!
I'll use my own darkside system on the random rollers to stave off the boredom, or just jump tables!
(Note: my darkside system has the same issue as every math system, but it's what I like, it's mine, and it works well FOR ME, and that's the key. I will discuss this when I publish my book).
Dances With Dice